HOW TO READ PARLAY ODDS, HIT CHANCE AND FAIR PRICE

Reading American odds

American odds come in two forms. A plus number is how much you would profit on a $100 stake. A minus number is how much you would need to stake to profit $100. Most single legs sit near even money, and almost every parlay ends up with a plus number because the legs multiply.

Two house tickets cashed this week, and both show how this looks in practice. Both were NFL 2-leg Quick Picks. One was priced at +102 and paid $20.24 on $10. The other was priced at +110 and paid $21.01 on $10.

At that level, the stake roughly doubles. Further up the board the numbers get large fast. A Scratch-Off ticket runs +2,500 to +50,000, a Power Parlay runs +50,000 to +500,000, and a Mega Parlay starts at +500,000.

Turning odds into a hit chance

For a plus number, the implied chance is 100 divided by the odds plus 100. For a minus number, take the odds without the sign and divide by that same number plus 100.

Here is the math for the prices on this site:

- At +102, the implied chance is 100 divided by 202, about 49.5%. - At +2,500, the bottom of the Scratch-Off window, it is about 1 in 26. - At +50,000 it is about 1 in 501. - At +500,000, where the Mega Parlay begins, it is about 1 in 5,001.

These implied numbers include the sportsbook's margin. The hit chance on our tickets is estimated from market consensus, so it is often a little longer than the price alone suggests. That gap is the point of the next two sections.

How parlay odds stack

A parlay pays only if every leg wins. To price one, convert each leg to decimal odds and multiply.

- For a plus number, decimal odds are the odds divided by 100, plus 1. So +100 becomes 2.0. - Two legs at 2.0 multiply to 4.0, which is +300. - Add a third leg at 2.0 and the ticket becomes 8.0, or +700.

The chance works the opposite way. You multiply each leg's probability, so every added leg cuts the hit chance.

This is why a six-leg Pick Six or a Mega Parlay can show a hit chance in the tens of thousands. Each leg on its own may look reasonable. Stacked together, they make a true long shot.

Price versus fair price

Every ticket here is priced at one sportsbook. Next to that price we show the fair price, built from market consensus across books with the margin removed.

- If the book's price is shorter than fair, you are paying extra margin for the same outcome. - If the two are close, the book is pricing it near the market.

You can check this leg by leg. Hover over any leg's odds on a ticket to compare every book. A single leg priced a little better at one book can move the final payout noticeably once it is multiplied through six or more legs.

Putting it to use

Open /build and spin a ticket in any tier. Read three numbers on it:

- the price at the listed book - the hit chance - the fair price

Then hover over the legs to see where each book stands.

For examples already on the board, the daily house ladder at /picks runs from a two-leg Quick Pick near +100 up to a Mega Parlay. That gives you one ticket at each step of the scale. Graded results land in /?status=won when a ticket cashes. The plain math of how all this works is covered further in /guides/how-lotto-ticket-parlays-work.